Analysis

While the market leans towards Israel acting first, I believe the United States is more likely to initiate a strike on Iranian soil or assets before March 31, 2026. My reasoning centers on capabilities, strategic control, and the nature of potential triggers. Should Iran cross a critical threshold in its nuclear program, the US, not Israel, possesses the overwhelming military capability to deliver a decisive blow, particularly against hardened or deeply buried targets. If a strike is deemed necessary to prevent a nuclear Iran, Washington would likely prefer to lead such an operation to maximize effectiveness and, crucially, to manage the subsequent de-escalation and regional fallout. A US-led strike could effectively pre-empt an Israeli one, especially if Israel fears the massive retaliation it might face without direct American backing. Furthermore, while Israel has a lower threshold for perceived existential threats, a direct, overt strike on Iranian soil by Israel could risk a broader regional conflagration that the US would ultimately be drawn into. To prevent an uncontrolled escalation initiated by Israel, the US might choose to act first if intelligence points to an imminent threat or a significant Iranian provocation that crosses a US red line (e.g., direct attack on US forces or clear movement towards a nuclear weapon). The current regional instability might also push the US to act decisively if diplomatic efforts fail, rather than relying on a potentially less effe