Analysis

Closing the Strait of Hormuz is an extreme, last-resort action for Iran, amounting to an act of war with devastating global economic and military repercussions. Such a move would trigger massive international retaliation and cripple Iran's own oil exports, proving economically suicidal for the regime. While regional tensions are undoubtedly high, a full closure within the very short timeframe of the next month (by June 30) would require an unprecedented, immediate, and existential threat to Iran that is not currently evident. Iran has historically opted for proxy conflicts and asymmetric warfare, not direct, all-out confrontation that would jeopardize its survival. The market's 40.7% probability appears to significantly overstate the likelihood of Iran taking such a drastic and self-damaging step in the immediate future. The costs far outweigh any potential benefits for the Iranian regime at this juncture.