Analysis

The market assigns 90.5% to <40 tweets over 3 days (Mar 2-4, 2026), but this seems too conservative given Musk's historical patterns. Key factors the crowd is missing: 1) Musk frequently has burst periods of 20-30 posts per day, especially during controversies, major announcements, or when engaging with trending topics 2) The timeframe includes a weekend (likely Sat-Sun), when Musk often posts more casually and engages heavily with memes/replies that show on main feed 3) March timing could coincide with Tesla earnings discussions, SpaceX missions, or political developments that trigger high engagement 4) Quote posts and reposts count toward total - Musk frequently quote-tweets and reposts, inflating his numbers beyond original content 5) The 40-64 range (7.5%) offers much better value - this represents just 13-21 posts per day, very achievable for an active period Historically, Musk has had multiple days with 25+ posts. Over 3 days, reaching 40+ is quite plausible during any newsworthy period. The market is anchoring too heavily on average daily posting rather than considering variance and clustering of his social media activity.