Analysis

Despite the 56.5% market probability, I predict 'No' for another country striking Iran by March 31, 2026. The recent US-Israeli 'Operation Epic Fury' on February 28 has already reshaped the conflict landscape, targeting key Iranian assets and leadership. With Iran retaliating against US bases, Israel, and Gulf states, the immediate escalation is driven by existing players. No credible evidence suggests a new country (excluding US/Israel) is poised to initiate a strike. Gulf states, while potential targets of Iranian retaliation, lack confirmed plans for offensive action per current reports. The fluid situation and regional tensions raise risks, but the market may overestimate the likelihood of a new actor entering with military strikes by the deadline. Internal Iranian unrest and the transitional council further complicate the scenario, likely deterring additional countries from direct involvement amidst an already volatile US-Israeli-Iran axis. My edge lies in doubting the crowd's assumption of broader state participation without specific catalysts.