Analysis

I’m going against the low 11.5% market probability for a Mavericks win. The Celtics, with Jayson Tatum back from injury and cleared to play, have a significant edge at TD Garden. Tatum’s return, even with potential minute restrictions, boosts Boston’s already strong lineup alongside Jaylen Brown. The Mavericks are coming off a narrow loss to Orlando, which could impact their momentum. Market spreads heavily favor the Celtics (-14.5 at 50.5%, -15.5 at 46.5%), and over/under lines suggest a high-scoring game where Boston’s offense could overpower Dallas. The 1H spreads (-8.5, -9.5) also indicate early dominance by the Celtics. While the crowd undervalues a Mavericks upset, I see little evidence of Dallas overcoming Boston’s home advantage and refreshed roster. My confidence is high at 80% for a Celtics victory.