Analysis

India enters as deserved favorites with several key advantages: Home conditions in Ahmedabad heavily favor India - 130,000 home fans and familiarity with pitch conditions that should suit their explosive batting lineup. Flat pitch projections of ~200 runs favor India's deeper batting order. Form analysis shows India more balanced: Suryakumar Yadav's captaincy, Sanju Samson in career-best form, and Jasprit Bumrah's sub-6.00 economy rate provide stability across all phases. Their 7-run semi-final win over England demonstrates composure under pressure. New Zealand's threat is real - Finn Allen's record century and Mitchell Santner's leadership make them dangerous. However, they appear more dependent on individual performances rather than team depth. Key matchups favor India slightly: experienced Bumrah vs Allen opening partnership, and India's batting depth beyond their top order gives them edge in high-scoring scenario. 84.5% seems roughly accurate given home advantage, form, and depth. No major injuries to either side keeps this straightforward.