Analysis

FC Bayern München remains the strong favorite for this Champions League tie. Their stellar form includes 37 unbeaten matches in their last 40 and a commanding 6-game winning streak where they scored 20 goals. While Harry Kane's absence is a significant blow to their attack, Bayern recently demonstrated their offensive depth by winning 4-1 against Borussia Mönchengladbach without him, showcasing their continued scoring ability. Atalanta possesses a strong home scoring record, averaging 3.10 goals in their last 10 home games, and Bayern has shown vulnerabilities on the road, conceding in all four League Phase away matches. However, Bayern's overall quality and extensive talent pool, featuring players like Musiala and Jackson, are expected to overpower Atalanta's defense, which has shown slips even at home. The market's implied probability of 59.5% seems slightly low given Bayern's consistent dominance and their recent performance without Kane. They are likely to secure the win.