Analysis

With only 18 days until resolution, the 81.5% market odds appear slightly conservative. Military action has intensified rather than wound down - 5,500+ U.S. strikes, 200+ IDF strikes on March 13 alone, and operations hitting key Iranian infrastructure as recently as March 12. Key factors supporting continuation: No ceasefire signals despite Iran's military being 'decimated' per Trump; historical precedent shows military campaigns persist weeks/months once initiated; short time horizon favors status quo; resolution requires BOTH U.S. AND Israel to cease strikes on same day. The intensive operational tempo and targeting of strategic assets (oil depots, naval bases, IRGC sites) suggests campaign objectives remain unmet. Given high trading volume ($197K+ 24hr), market appears well-informed but may underweight the difficulty of coordinated cessation by both militaries within 18 days.