Analysis

Despite Trump's rhetoric about operations being 'ahead of schedule' and 'very complete,' he explicitly stated on March 13th that they are 'not over yet,' with key objectives like preventing Iranian nuclear development remaining. The conflict continues to escalate, including IDF strikes and Iranian counterattacks, and Israeli officials indicate no time limit. For this market to resolve 'Yes,' a clear, official announcement that military operations have 'concluded' is required. Given the ongoing hostilities, the unfulfilled objectives, and Trump's direct statement, a definitive conclusion by March 31st is highly unlikely. Trump's pattern is to claim progress without a definitive end. The market's higher probabilities for later resolution dates (April 30th, June 30th) further support a longer timeline.