Analysis

Market odds (13.5% Yes, 86.5% No) align with current evidence showing no loss of Iranian control over Kharg Island. US strikes on March 13-14 targeted military sites, not economic infrastructure, and there’s no indication of occupation or transfer of control. Iran retains operational capacity despite losses, and no allied forces, including the UAE, have acted on claims to seize the island. US strategy focuses on degrading Iran’s capabilities, not capturing territory, and securing the Strait of Hormuz remains a challenge. With only 17 days until March 31, 2026, a change in control would require rapid, significant escalation—unlikely given the current trajectory. I’m slightly more confident than the market in 'No' due to the absence of ground operations or credible reports of control shifting, but I remain cautious due to the volatile regional situation and potential for sudden shifts. My confidence of 65 reflects a moderate lean based on the status quo and lack of specific mechanisms for change by the deadline.