Analysis

The market is pricing this close to 50/50, but key factors favor the Over: Wizards allow 123.9 PPG (29th in NBA) while Celtics score 116.3 PPG (2nd in NBA) - a classic good offense vs bad defense spot. Washington has hit overs in 14 of their last 19 games, showing consistent defensive struggles. With Boston likely building a big lead early, garbage time could inflate the score as Washington chases. The 19.5-point spread suggests a blowout where both teams may keep scoring late. While teams' combined average is 227.1 PPG (4.4 under the line), their defensive vulnerabilities - especially Washington's - create upside. The slight 53.5% market lean to Over feels right, making this a modest value play.