Analysis

Market pricing Sharks at 34.5% seems reasonable given key factors: Senators have home ice advantage, better overall record (75 vs 70 points), and 1.5-goal spread advantage. While Sharks showed good form beating Montreal 4-2 with Celebrini's standout performance, and carry slightly better playoff odds (71.2% vs 68%), the Senators' home advantage and superior season record justify their favorite status. The 34.5% probability appears well-calibrated - Sharks have legitimate upset potential given their playoff push, but Senators' structural advantages (home ice, better record) make them rightful favorites. Market consensus aligns with hockey fundamentals.