Analysis

Current 10-year yield at 4.15-4.26% needs 14-25 basis point surge in just 15 days to hit 4.4%. While upside risks exist (stubborn inflation, oil +65% from conflict, $1.78T deficit), expert consensus clusters yields at 4.20-4.25% over coming months, not weeks. Reuters poll of strategists expects yields near current levels through May. Recent high of 4.307% since August shows 4.4% would be breaking new ground. Market's 27.5% probability seems reasonable but slightly elevated given short timeframe and gradual tightening expectations. Fed rate cut expectations (twice in 2026) provide downward anchor. Without major shock, incremental moves more likely than sharp spike needed for 4.4% target.