Analysis

Global temperature trends, including an average of ~1.5ºC over the past three years and projections for March 2026 to align near or above recent highs (~1.4-1.6ºC), strongly contradict the 1.10-1.14ºC range. Accelerated warming at 0.35ºC per decade further suggests a higher anomaly. This narrow band lacks supporting evidence or models, making the outcome highly improbable despite the market's current 12% probability. Data consistently indicates a trajectory above this lower threshold.