Analysis

Given Tesla's historical Q1 seasonal weakness (18-22% of annual deliveries) and current market dynamics, I predict deliveries will fall below 350,000 in Q1 2026. Recent trends show Q1 2025 at 386,000, but with demand headwinds from reduced EV tax credits, rising competition from BYD and others, and potential production disruptions from model refreshes, a drop below 350,000 is plausible. Macroeconomic uncertainty and interest rate pressures further weigh on EV demand. While Tesla's capacity exceeds 2M annually, Q1 typically sees a 5-15% sequential decline from Q4, and additional challenges could push numbers lower. The market's 79% probability for this outcome aligns with these risks, and I see no strong counterevidence to deviate significantly. My confidence of 70 reflects moderate conviction based on historical patterns and current headwinds, though unforeseen production ramps or demand spikes could shift this outlook.