Analysis

The 0-99 post range covers 8 days, requiring <12.5 posts daily to stay under 100. Market heavily favors this at 78.5% vs 21% for 100-129 posts. Key factors supporting lower range: - Potential legal restrictions limiting activity - Platform access uncertainties - 0-99 is a broad range covering everything from minimal to moderate posting High trading volume ($60K+ daily) suggests informed betting. For Tate to exceed 99 posts requires sustained high-frequency posting (12.5+ daily), which while possible given his typical activity, faces headwinds from ongoing legal issues. Market pricing appears rational - the 0-99 range is simply much broader and more likely than any specific high-volume outcome. Without specific contrary information, the consensus probability seems well-calibrated.