Analysis

The market assigns 29% to the 65-89 tweet range - the highest single probability but still well under 50%. This translates to ~22-30 tweets/day over 3 days, which represents moderate-high activity for Musk. The probability distribution looks efficient: low odds for extreme inactivity (<40 tweets at 8.5%) and extreme hyperactivity (140+ at ~8.6%), with the bulk of probability mass in the 40-114 range (70.5% combined). While 65-89 is the modal outcome, there's a 71% chance Musk's activity falls outside this specific range. Without special events or information suggesting the market has mispriced this, the 29% probability suggests this outcome is more likely NOT to occur. Market seems well-calibrated for Musk's typical posting patterns.