Analysis

The market heavily favors 13°C (61.5%) over 12°C (14.0%) for tomorrow's Shanghai high. Weather forecasts mentioned predict 15-16°C, well above the 12°C threshold. With 1-day weather forecasting being quite reliable, and no special meteorological edge over thousands of traders, the current 14% odds for exactly 12°C seem reasonable or even slightly high. The probability distribution shows clear clustering around 13-14°C (84% combined), suggesting traders expect temperatures above 12°C. Historical March averages of 12-16°C support this range, but current forecasts lean toward the upper end. Staying close to market consensus but leaning slightly more bearish on 12°C given forecast data.