Analysis

Market favors Hornets at 65.5% despite Heat's 3-0 season series lead including recent win in Charlotte. Key factors favor Charlotte: • Home court advantage crucial in tight games • Bam Adebayo doubtful (calf) - major blow to Heat's interior defense/rebounding • Multiple Heat rotation players out (Wiggins, Rozier) • Hornets desperate fighting for play-in spot vs Heat secure in 7th • Charlotte's statistical edges: +6.5 rebounding, elite 3PT shooting (#2 volume, #3%) While Heat's season dominance over Charlotte is notable, the combination of key injuries, home court, and playoff desperation creates enough situational advantage for Charlotte. Market seems appropriately pricing these factors over head-to-head history.