Analysis

Weather forecasts 1 day out are highly reliable, and the market shows strong conviction with 72.5% on 12°C vs just 12% on 13°C. While forecast models show 11-13°C range and one site projects exactly 13°C, the dominant consensus from ECMWF/GFS models and $15K+ daily volume suggests traders are aligned on 12°C as most likely. The market is pricing 13°C as possible but unlikely within the forecast range. Post-cold front cooling with northerly flow supports the 11-12°C cluster that dominates market pricing. Without specific meteorological edge over informed traders, I align with market consensus that 13°C is plausible but not favored.