Analysis

South Florida at 34.5% seems fairly priced for an 11-seed upset. While Louisville loses star Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG), they still have solid depth with Conwell (18.7 PPG), Hadley (11.8 PPG), and McKneely (10.6 PPG). The line moved from -7.5 to -4.5 after Brown's injury, suggesting the market has already adjusted. Louisville's 6-seed advantage and overall talent edge should overcome South Florida's recent momentum. USF's high-volume 3-point shooting creates upset potential, but Louisville's remaining core has experience and better overall roster construction. March upsets happen, but favorites still win ~64% of these matchups even with key injuries factored in.