Analysis

Miami is the higher-ranked and seeded team, reflected in the market's implied 54.5% win probability (given 45.5% for Missouri). While Missouri benefits from a home-court advantage and recent resilience, their abysmal 3-point defense (330th) is a critical flaw Miami can exploit. Despite concerns about Tre Donaldson's foul trouble and Miami's own low free-throw percentage, their overall talent and strategic advantage against Missouri's defensive weakness make them the more likely winner. The game will be competitive, but Miami should prevail.