Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?

Analysis

Iran conducted strikes March 18 as part of escalating US-Iran War. Market shows March 21 at 98.4% probability - nearly certain - suggesting traders expect peak military action then. March 19 at 50% sits between confirmed March 18 action and the market's clear expectation of major action March 21. This pattern suggests March 19 may be a transitional day before the main event. With $100k+ daily volume, this market is well-informed. The dramatic spike to 98.4% on March 21 indicates specific intelligence or expectations about timing that favor later dates over March 19. Staying close to market odds given high trading volume and lack of information edge about Iranian military timing.