Market sees low odds for Iran meeting this week, but jumps to 70% by April
Analysis
The market assigns only 35% probability to a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31 (7 days away), but jumps to 70% by April 30. This suggests traders expect something significant in early April. The current news indicates military conflict rather than diplomatic preparation, but markets often price in non-public information. The $84k daily volume shows serious money behind these odds. Key factor: diplomatic meetings typically require weeks of advance preparation and backchannel coordination. A meeting within 7 days would be extraordinary and likely driven by crisis circumstances. The market structure (35% → 70% → 88.5% across three months) suggests high confidence in eventual meeting, just not this week. I align with market skepticism on the March 31 deadline while acknowledging the substantial probability jump suggests something planned for early April.
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US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Market: US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
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US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Market: US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?