Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?

Analysis

Current market odds for gas hitting $4.25 by March 31 sit at 28.5%, reflecting skepticism among bettors. AAA data shows the national average at $3.79–$3.84 as of mid-March, with EIA forecasting a March average of $3.58 and a decline to $3.00 by year-end. Even with geopolitical tensions like the Strait of Hormuz closure pushing prices up recently, no credible projection sees the average reaching $4.25 within the next week. Geopolitical relief is expected by mid-April, and high gasoline inventories should cap further spikes. Seasonal blend transitions add minor pressure, but not enough to breach $4.25. Market overreaction to news cycles seems priced in, and I lack a unique edge to contradict the odds significantly. I lean toward 'No' with slight conviction, aligning with the market's broader trend (e.g., 82% for $4.00) and data consensus.