Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

The market asks if Houthis will strike Israel by March 31, but this already happened on March 28, 2026. News confirms Houthis launched missiles targeting Israeli military facilities including near Dimona, with projectiles impacting Israeli territory and triggering air raid alerts. The market definition requires missiles launched by Houthis that 'physically impact land under Israeli control' - this criteria appears met based on the confirmed March 28 attack. While some missiles were intercepted, the news indicates impact occurred given the air raid alerts and targeting of ground facilities. At 32% odds, the market seems to be underpricing what appears to be an already-resolved YES outcome. The qualifying event has occurred with 2 days still remaining before market close. Unless there's dispute over whether the March 28 strikes meet the exact technical criteria, this should resolve YES.