Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

The market's probability for an Israeli strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026, stands at 53%, reflecting significant uncertainty. The absence of concrete information or public statements from the Israeli government regarding an imminent military action suggests that the market might be reacting to the recent Houthi missile strike on Israel rather than actual plans for retaliation. Historically, Israel's military responses are calculated and involve substantial public discourse and international considerations, none of which have been observed here. Typically, significant military actions are preceded by escalated tensions and clear government messaging, neither of which have been evident in the reports or the news. Given the lack of clear indicators of impending Israeli military action against Yemen within the next two days, and considering the status quo where substantive military decisions of this nature require more lead time for execution, a slight lean towards NO better aligns with the current evidence and typical Israeli military preparation timelines.