Bearish momentum likely continues despite oversold bounce potential
Analysis
Market odds of 67.5% for Down appear justified given strong technical breakdown. S&P 500 suffered fifth consecutive losing week, closed down 1.67% Friday, broke below declining trend channel, and sits below all major moving averages. VIX spiked above 30 amid geopolitical tensions and oil surge. However, RSI below 30 signals oversold conditions and seasonal April strength historically supports tactical bounces. Equity Clock maintains near-term upside bias citing short-covering potential and de-risking exhaustion. The bearish momentum from parabolic decline targeting 6100 and broader market correction (Nasdaq/Dow both correcting) likely overwhelms oversold bounce signals for Monday's opening. Geopolitical uncertainties and oil-driven inflation concerns create additional headwinds. While contrarian signals exist, the technical damage and momentum favor continuation lower at the open.
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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30?
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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30?