Summit delayed to May, only emergency calls possible with 1 day left
Analysis
The planned March Trump-Xi summit was delayed to May due to the Iran war, which significantly reduces the probability of any interaction. With only 1 day remaining in March, the 18.5% market odds already reflect the slim possibility of an emergency phone call regarding Middle East coordination. While the resolution criteria includes any verbal communication, not just formal meetings, the delay of the planned summit removes the most likely scenario. The market has already 'tempered' expectations based on this delay. Emergency diplomatic calls remain possible given the Iran conflict's impact on US-China relations, but the timing makes this unlikely. The market odds appear appropriately calibrated for this low-probability outcome.
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Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Market: Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
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Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Market: Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?