Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Analysis

Rafael López Aliaga's 34.5% market probability aligns with his polling lead of 11-12%, ahead of Keiko Fujimori at 9-11%, in a highly fragmented field of 35 candidates. His frontrunner status, driven by anti-crime rhetoric and a strong Renovación Popular base, plus his Lima mayoral record, positions him well amid Peru's crime surge and corruption fatigue. However, significant uncertainty remains with over 40% undecided voters and a near-certain runoff on June 7. Historical volatility, like Castillo's 2021 upset, suggests surprises are possible. While right-wing candidates dominate with 29% collective support, López Aliaga's individual edge is narrow. I lean YES due to his consistent lead and thematic alignment with voter priorities, but confidence is tempered by fragmentation and runoff dynamics. Market odds seem reasonably priced, and I lack a unique edge to deviate significantly.