Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?

entertainment
68%
ACTIVE
Creator
0xa100...a0de30/03/2026, 19:30

Conservative 5-day estimates at $160M+ suggest modest upside into 170-180M range likely undervalued

Analysis

Market heavily favors >$200M (31.5%) while 170-180M sits at just 17%. However, recent reporting cites 'at least $160M' as conservative 5-day estimates from Deadline, with Easter weekend family positioning providing upside catalyst. The 2023 predecessor's $146M 3-day success extrapolated over 5 days, combined with Galaxy's franchise strength and holiday timing, makes the 170-180M range achievable as a modest beat of conservative projections. While market expects massive outperformance, the 170-180M bracket represents reasonable middle ground between conservative floor and euphoric ceiling expectations.

AI Analysis

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Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?

Market: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?

Predicts:
Yes(68% confident)
Yes17.0%
No83.0%
Confidence:
68%
Closes: 4/6/2026View on Polymarket →
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