Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1?

Analysis

The ECMWF, GFS, and KMA models suggest a range of 13-15°C for Seoul on April 1 due to a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly flow. Current market probability assigns 35.5% for 13°C, but the 14°C outcome is close behind at 26.5%, reflecting its anchoring in historical averages for early April. Cloud cover, a key variable, is expected to be partly cloudy, which may tip the temperature to 14°C, matching Seoul's historical daily highs. Advances in forecast modeling have increased precision, but the high probability for 13°C is countered by models slightly favoring 14°C amid uncertainties. Late March trends show warming with highs reaching near 19°C, indicating an upward temperature tendency. However, with significant total trading volume indicating robust market interest, the present odds reflect market uncertainty, leaving a lean towards NO for 13°C given stronger factors for a slightly higher temp.