Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4?

Analysis

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,825, needing to overcome a crucial resistance zone at $68,000-$70,000, including the 200-week EMA. The price recently dropped from the upper $68,000s due to geopolitical tensions, indicating weakness. With only two days until resolution, a significant upward move against this established resistance and bearish near-term sentiment is improbable. The ongoing downtrend with lower highs further supports the unlikelihood of BTC sustaining above $68,000 by April 4. The current market probability of 29.5% for a 'Yes' outcome appears optimistic given the prevailing on-chain and market structure indicators.