Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Analysis

Multiple recent polls show Tisza leading Fidesz by 19-23 points among decided voters (21 Research: 56% vs 37%, Medián: 58% vs 35%). Even accounting for undecideds and historical polling errors, these margins suggest strong potential for 9%+ victory. Market at 39.5% appears conservative given polling consistency. Key risks: rural Fidesz strength, diaspora voting patterns, and potential late swings. However, the polling trend has been widening in Tisza's favor through March-April. While government-aligned polls show tighter races, independent polling consensus points to substantial Tisza advantage. With 10 days remaining, current trajectory favors exceeding 9% margin despite market skepticism.