Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4?

Analysis

Reference class: Similar weather forecasting events resolve YES around ~50% given historical variabilities in forecasts. Adjusting +2pp for consensus among major weather models indicating temperatures clustering around 20–22°C. Independent estimate: 52%. Market odds: 39.5%. My slight edge comes from combined model outputs suggesting a slight favor towards 21°C rather than 22°C or other outcomes.