Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Analysis

Reference class: Movies dropping from #1 in mid-cycle reclaim top spot ~40% of the time. Adjusting +5pp for strong early performance (19.4M views) and franchise appeal, but real-time data shows it at #6 (248M minutes) behind Humint (539M). Independent estimate: 45%. Market says 11.5% — significant divergence. My edge: current rankings suggest low likelihood of recovery in final days, but market may overreact to recent drop.