Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees

Analysis

Reference class: Road underdogs in MLB win ~40-45%. Starting at 40% base rate. Adjusting +5pp for Yankees missing ace starters Cole/Rodón, +3pp for Yankees' inexperienced starter Warren (2nd career start), +2pp for Pérez's strong recent form. Offset by -3pp Yankees home opener motivation, -3pp superior offensive talent. Independent estimate: 44%. Market at 39.5% shows only 4.5pp divergence - no meaningful edge. Given my overconfidence bias, pulling toward market odds.