US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tommy Paul vs Frances Tiafoe

Analysis

Paul looks the goods here and that 3-1 head-to-head record tells the story. He's beaten Tiafoe consistently, including straight sets at Delray Beach just last year, and nothing suggests that's about to change. That quarterfinal performance was clinical too — Paul dismantled Etcheverry in straight sets while Tiafoe had to save a match point against Popyrin. Sure, Tiafoe showed guts in that comeback, but he also made it much harder work than it needed to be. The market has Paul as a decent favourite and I think they've got it right. Tiafoe can compete with anyone on his day, but Paul has his number and looks sharper right now. I'd back Paul to advance — the head-to-head record is too strong to ignore.